This is my seventh year of crafting forecasts for the museum field and the pace of change within our field continues to gain steam. In 2025, museums in the United States found themselves the target of White House Executive Orders and suffered slashes to precious few federal funding streams, both of which have impacted collections care and community programming. The dramatic increase of chaos and uncertainty in the museum field is (understandably) taking a toll, and it’s difficult to continually address the areas under stress.
It’s with my fellow US museum colleagues in mind that we focus this year’s trends on three essential areas:
- Federal Impact on Local Museum Spaces
- Compromised Revenue Streams
- The Shifting Usefulness of Professional Organizations
Forecast #1: Federal Impact on Local Museum Spaces
Everything is local. In attempting to attribute this quote I discovered its use was so widespread and varied in context that there was no definitive point of origin—underscoring just how essential this small truth is. Policies, Executive Orders (EOs), and funding decisions occurring at the federal level have a trickle-down effect. For example: A museum may not have experienced the direct impact of losing an already awarded federal grant, but it can still suffer from the impact of the collective damage done to the funding ecosystem museums rely on.
It’s also led to the reduction and attempted elimination of important national agencies that steward the health of US museums, such as the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH), the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA), and the Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS). While these agencies haven’t been fully shuttered (yet), their staff were significantly reduced along with the funding they award museums. We’ve lost more than just money here. We’ve lost critical resources to the field—ones we depend on for information, coordination in crisis, leadership in polices and best practices, and engines of advocacy for our work and our collections.
This year has seen EOs and subsequent reduction in funding decisions enforcing an anti-Diversity Equity and Inclusion (DEI) sentiment. If museum grant projects, programming, and indeed, the museums themselves are seen as “too DEI,” funding is threatened unless they rip out everything resembling DEI. A notable example is the Japanese American National Museum (JANM) in Los Angeles, California. Despite being a recipient of up to $2-million dollars in tenuous federal grants, JANM refused to pre-emptively scrub DEI themes from their website in act of anticipatory censorship. And they are not the only ones. Museums across the US are reconsidering the acceptance of federal funding if it means they are then required to adhere to the current administration’s overreaching restrictions (via funding contracts) on the content museums choose to work on.
In March 2025, the most chilling EO was released, entitled “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History.” Federal agencies like the National Park Service (NPS) and the Smithsonian Institution museums were the first to be scrutinized for unacceptable exhibits and interpretive signage. Now, non-federal museums and historic sites are being targeted by projects like The Heritage Foundation (THF). Battlefields, museums, and historic sites identified at a local level are assessed and assigned an A, B, or C grade on their appropriateness. The website for THF describe the Site Selection process as focusing on sites of substantive exhibits and prioritize state and local sites over national museums.
For a Deeper Dive
At Relicura, we’ve written quite a bit about this topic. Please see our posts over at Relicura.com for a deeper dive:
- “Fire” at the National Archives (March 2025)
- History—A “working draft” (April 2025)
- Disappearing Ink—The continued erasure of our Nation’s history (August 2025)
- Under siege: museums as safe spaces (September 2025)
Consequences of Federal Impact on Local Museum Spaces
This multi-pronged dismantling of the US museum complex is incredibly destabilizing. The loss of millions in federal funding, severely reduced supportive agencies (NEH, NEA, IMLS), and censorship-instilling policies have an arresting effect on the entire industry. Changes happening at the federal level have a devastating impact at the local level.
My 2026 Forecast
The consequences are and will continue to be heartbreaking. The US museum field will continue to lose skilled professionals, the museum-community relationship will continue to be damaged, and we will lose years, if not decades, of collection data and museum interpretive work to damaging censorship-driven policies. But not all hope is lost. We will see creative and resilient ways museum professionals meet this moment. We know better than most what the cost is if we don’t.
Forecast #2: Compromised Museum Revenue Streams
As a result of the above issues, museum funding is about to reach a crisis point. The American Alliance of Museums released their “Annual National Snapshot of United States Museums,” (fielded July-August, 2025) and the following findings portend a financial crisis on its way:
- Bottom Line: When asking museum directors to report on their 2024 financial performance, 48% report their bottom line was weaker than the pre-pandemic (2019) bottom line. When projecting for 2025, 63% report their bottom line will remain the same or decrease compared to 2024.
- Increasing Costs: Museum directors report the top two areas of increasing costs are operating expenses (77%) and inflation (74%).
- Federal Factors: Among EOs, anti-DEI efforts, loss of funding, and anemic US tourism, more than two-thirds of museums report these federal-born factors have impacted them financially.
- New Approaches to Revenue Generation: More than 55% of museums have begun or increased efforts to secure corporate brand sponsorships. While 46% have rehauled membership programs. Other activities include: collaborative fundraising, crowdfunding, and beginning or increasing facility rental.
Source: “Annual National Snapshot of United States Museums,” American Alliance of Museums, (published July-August, 2025).
What’s also clear from this snapshot report is that two-thirds of museums are doing the work in terms of advocacy. Museum directors indicate they’re actively engaged at the local and federal levels with their government representatives. What’s less clear is how museums may have prepared (or not) for this moment. It was not too long ago we saw museums floundering in their response to the financial impact of the global pandemic. We’ve seen major economic impacts in the US at least once every decade and, frustratingly, museums are often caught unprepared for these periodic financial disasters. To read more on this issue please see my previous post on this topic: Economic Disaster Planning for Museums, via Lucidea’s Think Clearly Blog (published June 10, 2020).
Consequences of Compromised Museum Revenue Streams
The consequences of stale revenue streams—with major streams susceptible to federal factors—include museum closures, deferred facility maintenance, postponed technology improvements, loss of staff, and cancelled public programming. (These statistics are included in the “Annual National Snapshot of United States Museums”). With the current crisis, several museum revenue streams are compromised, and when you only have a few revenue streams, the effect can be catastrophic.
My 2026 Forecast
Rising costs and revenue challenges will likely continue into the next year and museum leadership will need to quickly shore up or build new streams. We’re seeing a promising start with the adoption of newer approaches to revenue generation. This year will be a make-or-break year for whether museums adopt new strategies and, if they do, how well they execute said strategies.
Forecast #3: The Shifting Usefulness of Professional Organizations
In the US museum field, we have a few professional organizations that support our work. Regardless of your museum type and your role, professional organizations are intended to do three things:
- Maintain professional best practices and standards
- Support professionals in their work through educational offerings, conferences, and literature
- Support the field by coordinating advocacy efforts specific to federal and state policies
In return for these services, members pay a membership fee and volunteer their time and expertise to support the labor that goes into those efforts. With membership prices rising and the demand for volunteer labor increasing in response to US current events, professional organizations are struggling to meet their mission. Some large organizations are notably silent, while other smaller organizations are putting themselves on the front lines of advocacy.
Consequences of the Shifting Usefulness of Professional Organizations
As we’ve covered in today’s post: money is tight. Many professionals are reconsidering which professional memberships they maintain, and if a professional organization doesn’t appear to be serving their membership to the best of their abilities, it’s hard to justify keeping the cost. Several large national organizations have already seen a reduction in their membership numbers.
My 2026 Forecast
Professional organization memberships will continue to decrease this year, especially at larger (typically national) organizations. Local professional organizations that offer region-specific support and at lower prices will maintain or even increase in membership numbers. National professional organizations that offer current event-responsive resources will hold off any catastrophic declines in membership. Meanwhile, national organizations seen to not support the profession and whose prices are too steep for the current economic moment will find their issues compounding with the loss of membership numbers.
Assess the Past, Anticipate the Future, Build Alliances
It’s an incredibly tough time for the US museum sector. However, we can gain insight from an assessment of the events from this past year and better understand how these have impacted the ecosystem of our museums. With a focus on shoring up areas most threatened and teaming up with allies in our professional organizations, we can begin to address the damage being done.
Past Museum Forecasts
This is the seventh post in a series of annual forecasts. To view past forecasts, please see below:
Museum Forecast 2025
- DEI Programs Will Shutter or Evolve
- Museums Will Increasingly Engage in Self-Censorship
- Pluralism/Bridgey Words Concepts Will Increasingly Appear
Museum Forecast 2024
- Digital Programs Will Sink or Swim in the Fight for Adequate Resources
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) as Empathy Generators in Museums
- Pervasive Burnout Remains Unaddressed in Any Meaningful Way
Museum Forecast 2023
- The Illegalization of Unpaid Internships
- Repatriation is No Longer Optional
- The Evolution of the Collection Development Policy
Museum Forecast 2022
- No More Half-Measures When It Comes to Offering Accessibility
- The Continued and Accelerated Elimination of Museum “Entry-Level” Jobs
- A Digital Boom
Museum Forecast 2021
- Museums Will Close
- Collections Accessioning and Deaccessioning
- Digital Collections are a Higher Priority
Museum Forecast 2020
- DEAI Embedded into Museums and Driving Programmatic Change
- Grant Funding, Modest Budgets, Funding Threatened, and Incredibly Competitive
- Ethical Labor Practices Requiring Salary Transparency, Institutions Lack Financial Health
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