A Year in Review: An Assessment of My 2024 Museum Forecast

In Museum Forecast 2024, I shared three forecasts: digital programs will sink or swim, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will emerge as a tool for empathy generation, and pervasive burnout will remain unaddressed in a meaningful way.

This post will outline the specifics of my forecast for each area and offer observations on how those areas actually evolved over the course of 2024. This year held several significant topics for museums to grapple with, including:

• Increasing adoption and experimentation with Artificial Intelligence.
• State-level legislatures removing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programming (and museums grappling with how to include visitors of differing political views).
• How museums are affected by, as well as how they may positively impact, global climate change.

Before we dive into the 2025 museum forecast, it is time to reflect on 2024 and where we’ve ended the year.

Reflections on My Museum Forecast 2024

As a refresher, the following were the major predictions in the Museum 2024 forecast:

1. Digital programs will sink or swim in the fight for adequate resources to continue running.
2. Artificial Intelligence (AI) will emerge as a major tool for empathy generation at museums.
3. Pervasive burnout will not be addressed in a meaningful way and staff will need to shift into survival mode for the sake of their health.

Museum Forecast Review

Below are the three forecasts and a summary of their contents in italics. An assessment of how things actually played out follows each forecast.

2024 Forecast #1: Digital Programs Sink or Swim in the Fight for Adequate Resources

My forecast was that museums would reach a “sink or swim” point with leadership regarding resource allocation to digital programs. The options being:

1. Museum leadership reexamines and adjusts annual funding to account for the consistent funding need for a Digital Programs department (in whatever form that looks like); or

2. The unofficial digital aspects of the museum continue to shrink to a size that matches the current resource allocation.

Essentially, there will either be a reprioritization of the budget OR a rebalancing of priorities that shifts digital production downward.

How My Forecast for Digital Programs Actually Played Out in 2024

In this category, museums have really struggled to allocate appropriate resources to museum digital programs. While additional outreach and gentle education are greatly needed to bring decision-makers up to speed regarding the necessary resources to support the digital elements of the museum, the overwhelming challenge has more to do with a lack of resources in general.

In September, Susie Wilkening published, “Visitation Recovery Trends from the Pandemic: A 2024 Annual Survey of Museum-Goers Data Story Update,” via the American Alliance of Museums’ Alliance Blog. Her post shared the latest statistics from the 2024 Annual Survey of Museum-Goers. The statistics are aligned with what we are experiencing locally. Only 50% of museums are back to pre-pandemic audience levels. Wilkening goes on to explain the number of unique visitors is on the rise, while the frequency of repeat visits is still in decline. In other words, total visits (unique and repeat) are impacted. While visitation is not the only revenue stream for museums, its role as the major revenue generator for many illuminates just how heavily affected museums’ financial resources remain post-pandemic.

Anecdotally, even though financial resources remain scarce, my firm (Relicura) has experienced a continued and significant increase in demand for our free content that supports museum staff attempting to move digital projects forward.

This forecast winds up with mixed results as leadership and resources lag behind, and museum staff continue to struggle forward. One thing is for sure, the interest in doing digital work has not dropped off post-pandemic, even though resources remain the largest hurdle.

2024 Forecast #2: Artificial Intelligence as Empathy Generators in Museums

My forecast was that museums will increasingly experiment with bringing AI into their programs and galleries (in-person and online), and AI-related initiatives will dominate the next few years of innovation in the museum field.

How My Forecast for Artificial Intelligence in Museums Actually Played Out in 2024

In museum conversations regarding AI, a lot of this year’s focus was on experimentation with AI tools. While using AI as an empathy generation tool has yet to be specifically called out by museums as the goal, it is clearly an output of the work. We have covered AI and its different implications and applications in the museum field, and in September, we published a follow-up post to highlight two strong examples of how AI tools have been used to evoke an empathetic response in museum visitors.

At the “2024 Future of Museums Summit,” held by the American Alliance of Museums, AI was one of the main “tracks” of content. During the sessions, the example of the “Sleeping Beauties: Reawakening Fashion” exhibition at the Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute was shared. The Met partnered with OpenAI to develop a chat tool visitors can engage with when exploring the exhibition. In this instance, the project goal was to bring Natalie Potter, a 1930s New York City socialite, back to life to answer visitor questions via chat. OpenAI worked with The Met’s digital team to gather letters, newspaper articles, and other primary documents to create a dataset that helps bring Natalie “back to life.”

In addition to a chat conversation with Natalie, the exhibit offers an option to “reawaken” Natalie by viewing a photograph of her in her wedding gown. In this instance, Natalie is reanimated (or “reawakened” to use the exhibit term) and in the photograph, she turns to pose for the viewer. This is a similar technique to one we discussed in our previous coverage of AI and the Dezeen partnership with The Dalí museum, and Kling AI’s video demonstration of “bringing art to life.”

Often these AI projects are described as “bringing {a person} back to life,” and when we can humanize a stranger (real or not) we can begin to develop empathy for them. There is a brief (2:40) YouTube video, “Collaborating with The Met to Awaken ‘Sleeping Beauties’ with AI,” where OpenAI staff speak about the project.

Toward the end of the video Mira Murati, the Chief Technology Officer at OpenAI, summarized her hope for the future:

“I really hope this technology can help us create a richer relationship with knowledge and creativity, and with this technology, we can overcome some of the constraints of reality. The only constraint then is our imagination.”

In this case, the constraint of the person no longer being alive, or perhaps never existing in our reality to begin with, is lifted. Through technology and its creative application to museum objects and data, we can share stories in a more meaningful way. In all of the AI applications we have seen in the field thus far, empathy generation is an undeniable by-product of the work and, I would argue, the product that delivers an unforgettable impression on the museum visitor.

Additional Reading (specific to AI):

• What Does AI Mean to Museums?
• Museum TrendsWatch 2024: AI Adolescence in Museums
• Considering AI as an Empathy Generator in Museum Spaces

2024 Forecast #3: Pervasive Burnout Remains Unaddressed in Any Meaningful Way

My forecast was that burnout and the issues that contribute to it will continue to gain visibility within the field. However, until there is meaningful change enacted by leadership—within the museum and within the profession generally—individual mental health will continue to suffer, and hundreds will leave the field. Unfortunately, I think this will be another year of continued struggle, burnout, and field atrophy. However, it does not mean we cannot make some progress towards a healthier field.

How My Forecast for Unaddressed Burnout Played Out in 2024

Much to our detriment, this forecast came to pass. Burnout is the result of several factors including inequitable pay, carrying more job responsibilities than is possible for 1 FTE, and toxic work environments (often due to poor leadership). When reviewing discussions on burnout (and contributing factors) across professional organizations and individual institutions, it’s clear that very little has been added since the most recent burnout “trend” in 2021—as the globe entered into its second year of a pandemic.

Instead, the shiny potential of AI, competition with corporate-provided immersive exhibitions, and the precarious balance of being places of truth while courting visitors across a political spectrum have taken up much of our focus. Each of these areas is important to critically evaluate, discuss, and build resources around; but we can only do that if staff have the energy and brainpower required to do so. As an individual, I feel our institutions and professional organizations are being shortsighted about this to the detriment of everyone.

For example, the American Alliance of Museums 2024 conference only held one session dedicated to staff wellness in regard to burnout, “Finding Your Spark: Renewing Your Professional Wellness Journey,” hosted by Hand Made Dreams Founder/CEO Ashley Witherspoon and therapists Osei Harvey and Jessica Smith. By contrast, the 2024 conference hosted more than a dozen sessions on how museums (i.e., staff) can support their community’s well-being.

It seems silly to have to remind professional organizations—whose purpose is to support museum professionals as well as their institutions—that the advice is to put our own oxygen masks on first. There are peers out there doing the work and continuing to research, discuss, and share resources. One of the more recent examples is Rebecca Shulman of Museum Questions Consulting. Shulman is conducting burnout research among our peers and over the last year has gathered our stories. I look forward to seeing her findings and hope our institutions and professional organizations are positively anticipating them too.

Looking Ahead to 2025: Much to Celebrate, Much to Anticipate

These last few years have been full of upheaval and great periods of uncertainty. As a whole, the museum field has made great strides in recovering from a global pandemic and tackling an ever-evolving technology, while engaging in challenging discussions as cultural community centers in which the public bestows great trust.

We have all done a tremendous amount of work, and there is much to celebrate from 2024. Similarly, there is much to be excited about in the year ahead. In preparation, I do encourage you to take frequent periods of rest and continue to cultivate the areas in your life that can improve your resilience.